| 论文标题 |
An application of Mean Escape Time and metapopulation on forestry catastrophe insurance |
| 作者 |
Jiangcheng Li , Chunmin Zhang, Jifa Liu , Zhen Li, Xuan Yang |
| 发表/完成日期 |
2018-04-01 |
| 期刊名称 |
PHYSICA A-STATISTICAL MECHANICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS |
| 期卷 |
495 |
| 相关文章 |
1-s2.0-S0378437117313468-main.pdf
|
| 论文简介 |
A forestry catastrophe insurance model due to forestry pest infestations and disease epidemics is developed by employing metapopulation dynamics and statistics properties of Mean Escape Time (MET). The probability of outbreak of forestry catastrophe loss and the catastrophe loss payment time with MET are respectively investigated. Forestry loss data in China is used for model simulation. Experimental results are concluded as: (1) The model with analytical results is shown to be a better fit; (2) Within the condition of big area of patches and structure of patches, high system factor, low extinction rate, high multiplicative noises, and additive noises with a high cross-correlated strength range, an outbreak of forestry catastrophe loss or catastrophe loss payment due to forestry pest infestations and disease epidemics could occur; (3) An optimal catastrophe loss payment time MET due to forestry pest infestations and disease epidemics can be identified by taking proper value of multiplicative noises and limits the additive noises on a low range of value, and cross-correlated strength at a high range of value. |
(创新港)
